Inflation directly affects bakeries by increasing the cost of essential raw materials, such as flour, butter, sugar and eggs, as well as energy bills. As a result, many artisan bakers have been forced to adjust their prices, as evidenced by the increase in the price of the baguette, which crossed the symbolic €1 mark in 2023.
This price increase has repercussions on the consumption of customers, who, although remaining loyal to their usual bakeries, tend to buy less or opt for cheaper products. For example, one in five people have reduced their purchases at these points of sale, a phenomenon accentuated by the decrease in purchasing power.
Inflation is putting considerable pressure on bakers’ margins, making it more difficult to invest in new equipment or expand operations. Indeed, a decrease in investments was noted in 2023, with an average investment of €14,150, compared to €16,411 in 2022. This situation is aggravated by an increase in loan repayments, limiting the ability of bakeries to modernize.
Independent bakeries are particularly vulnerable in this context. Unlike large chains, which can absorb cost increases more easily thanks to economies of scale, small structures struggle to maintain their profitability. Some bakers choose to reduce their production or rationalize their offer to limit losses, but this impacts the attractiveness of their business.
In contrast to the difficult situation of traditional bakeries and pastry shops, the snacking sector is showing notable resilience. Although inflation is also impacting production costs and prices of snacking products, this segment continues to grow. According to a study conducted by Strateg’eat and Gira Foodservice, out-of-home snacking accounted for about a third of meals at the start of the 2024 school year. Bakeries play a key role in this dynamic, accounting for 52% of the most frequented establishments for fast food, closely followed by pizzerias and fast-food chains.
This performance is partly explained by the evolution of consumer habits. In a difficult economic context, consumers are increasingly turning to more affordable and convenient meals, which favors the snacking sector. Although the average customer basket has decreased (15% of consumers are buying less), bakeries and other fast food establishments continue to capture a significant share of the market.
Snacking is also benefiting from the diversification of its offer. Flagship products such as pizzas, burgers and kebabs, which appeal to consumers for their price and speed, are in high demand. The growing popularity of these fast-food options is helping bakeries maintain a steady flow of customers, despite the challenging economic conditions. In addition, some consumers are turning to more affordable outlets, such as supermarkets or bakeries offering cheap snacking packages, thus amplifying the success of this segment.
To adapt to inflation, many bakeries and snack shops have had to review their strategy. Bakeries are relying on a rationalization of their production and a gradual increase in their prices to compensate for cost increases, but this is not always enough to maintain profitability, especially for the smallest structures
On the other hand, the snacking sector relies on its flexibility and its ability to meet economic needs to attract customers looking for affordable options. Bakers who have integrated a snacking offer into their business thus benefit from a competitive advantage in a changing market.
Despite the challenges, the bakery and snacking sector in France is showing an ability to adapt to inflation. While independents are suffering more than large chains, the future of snacking looks promising, with growth opportunities linked to new consumer habits. However, for artisan bakers, the situation remains fragile, and the need to reinvent their business model could be crucial in the years to come.
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